Ripple effectsof the conflictin Ukraine: 

Truths & myths

What does data tell us?

We analyse the secondary effects of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine on economies in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.

We assessed publicly available information and data on the economic impacts of the war resulting from supply chain disruptions, comparing different sources and datasets, and highlighting any similarities or contradictions.

we have found out that...

1

The economic impact of the war in Ukraine as depicted in media articles and some reports by humanitarian organisations seems exaggerated when cross-checking the secondary data review with data related to the prices of commodities, inflation rates, dependency on imports from Ukraine and Russia, and information on pre-existing humanitarian crises affecting those countries.

2

Most publicly available reports focus on international price hikes that occurred in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February, showing ‘spikes’ and ‘skyrocketing prices’ but overlooking longer trends over the years and pre-existing crises affecting the countries.

3

Prices of commodities such as fuel and wheat flour in selected countries have been rising since at least 2020 and not only following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

4

There is only a mild correlation between the deterioration of humanitarian crises (according to the INFORM Severity Index) and the dependency of countries in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East on wheat imports from Ukraine and Russia over January–June 2022.

SOME COUNTRY-SPECIFIC KEY FINDINGS FROM ACAPS' ANALYSIS

SOMALIA

Some reports assessing the impact of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine on Somalia cite it as one of the main drivers of the food insecurity crisis in the country. However, when examining data and information more in detail, conflict in Ukraine appears to be an aggravating factor rather than a driver.

The prices of wheat flour, sorghum, and maize have increased following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but prices had already spiked in May 2020 and have been increasing since then

Zimbabwe

ACAPS’ data analysis and secondary data review show that the impact of the 2022 Russian invasion has contributed to a worsening economic situation in Zimbabwe.

The prices of beans, rice, salt, and sugar started to increase in April 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine

mozambique

Reports and media articles consistently present Mozambique as one of the countries facing a high risk of social and political upheaval because of soaring food and energy prices resulting from the impact of the war in Ukraine. ACAPS’ data analysis of wheat and other food item prices shows that there is hardly any correlation between the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the change in some of these prices. 

The prices of rice, maize, and beans have been stable or decreasing following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Lessons learnt & recommendations for data analysis

Secondary data analysis (using both economic and contextual information) is recommended to complement economic trend analysis and explain the drivers of inflation or hyperinflation in certain contexts.



Triangulation and cross-checking between publicly available secondary data analysis and primary data is essential for understanding the current global economic situation and national economies’ trends.



For Yemen and Lebanon, the monitoring and analysis of the flow of imported goods, such as fuel and other essential food items, and reported end user consumer prices requires knowledge of data limitations and how to reconcile separate datasets. Triangulation checks are also necessary to determine the accuracy of available data.

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